By The Draft Doctor
April 05, 2008 03:36 pm
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The 2008 NFL draft class, though strong at some positions, does not have the depth of last year’s group.
Some positions — quarterback, defensive tackle, linebacker — are considerably thinner. On the other hand, it looks like a pretty good year at wide receiver, running back and cornerback.
After the first six to eight players come off the board, most observers agree there’s not a lot of distinction between the remaining top prospects. That means a lot of teams might be willing to trade down, add a player or pick and still think they can get their target player or someone they rate just as highly. There is certainly a reluctance to pay top dollar for a mid-first rounder with no better than second-round potential.
The ol’ Draft Doctor does not like this kind of thinking. The best teams are the aggressive ones. The draft day strategy that works best is identifying a short list of players you want and being willing to pay a reasonable price to move up to get them. If Arkansas speedster Felix Jones would make the perfect backfield mate for the Cowboys’ Marion Barber, Jerry Jones should see what it would take to move up a few spots and grab Jones. Don’t overreach and don’t overpay, but also don’t sit still and just hope to get lucky.
Some players in this draft class have been underrated.
For instance, what’s not to like about Auburn defender Quentin Groves? He runs a 40 in the 4.5 range at almost 260 pounds — that’s impressive. He was productive as a starter at Auburn, providing most of the pass rush against top-notch competition. He’s a ferocious pass rusher and can play the run. Yet, despite all those attributes, Groves is often projected to go in the bottom of the first round or further down.
Why?
While there is some questioning of his durability — I think he got nicked up in every game I ever saw him play — the primary question about Groves is where he will play. Is he a smallish defensive end or a bulky linebacker? Can he play OLB in a 4-3 or is he strictly a 3-4 “rush backer?” If interest in Groves is limited to teams using a 3-4 defense, then he might well drop on draft day, but I don’t see that happening.
Most of Groves’ experience at Auburn was at defensive end, though the Tigers did use him some at OLB later in his college career. Teams needing more outside pass rush — and that’s just about everybody in the NFL — should take a close look at Groves. If he can play in a team’s system, his package of athletic skills and experience is a real value.
I don’t see Groves dropping below Detroit at 15 and he could go higher.
Another player who seems to be knocked down on most draft lists is Texas running back Jamaal Charles. Although his production was spotty at times (like the rest of the Texas offense), there wasn’t a better back in the nation during the final two months of this past season. Charles carried the struggling Longhorns on his back.
I have seen him downgraded as far as the third round. But I find it hard to believe that NFL teams are so deep at running back that a 200-plus pound back with sub-4.4 speed will get a blasé reaction on draft day.
Despite producing the national championship team in LSU and a slew of bowl teams, the SEC probably won’t make a particularly big splash in the first round.
Bayou Bengal defensive tackle Glenn Dorsey could be the top pick overall, but the only other SEC player considered a surefire top 15 selection is Arkansas running back Darren McFadden, who could also go No. 1 if the Dolphins trade down.
After those two, the top SEC prospects are Groves, Florida defensive end Derrick Harvey and Vanderbilt offensive tackle Chris Williams.
I’d add Tennessee middle linebacker Jerrod Mayo to that group. Mayo’s fine combination of speed and size has finally caught the eyes of NFL scouts and he looks like he could slide to OLB in the pros if needed. Since the end of a highly productive season, Mayo has added heft while at the same time dropping his time in the 40-yard dash.
Three other SEC players who should go in the first two rounds all play wide receiver. Vandy’s Earl Bennett is joined by Early Doucet (LSU) and Andre Caldwell (Florida) near the top of most lists of wide receivers, a position always in demand.
Powerhouse Georgia won’t be contributing much to the NFL draft this year. A handful of seniors including linemen Fernando Velasco and Chester Adams are middle round possibilities. Returner Mikey Henderson will be looked at as a pure returner and kicker Brandon Coutu could get the nod in the late rounds. If he were bigger, running back Thomas Brown would be a threat to go in the first three rounds, but at shorter than 5 feet, 9 inches and less than 200 pounds, he’ll fall further.
Georgia Tech, on the other hand, is going to lose several key players to the NFL. Running back Tashard Choice is an intriguing possibility in a crowded backfield class. Linebackers Philip Wheeler and Gary Guyton are likely picks, as is undersized defensive end Darrell Robertson. Durant Brooks could be the first punter drafted.
The Draft Doctor welcomes your comments, but makes no house calls.
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